--- title: "Can France's National Rally Finally Win the Élysée, With or Without Le Pen?" description: "As France looks toward its April 2027 presidential election, the far-right National Rally leads every major poll. But its path to power turns on an unresolved legal question: whether Marine Le Pen will be allowed to run at all." category: "World" category_url: https://herald.la/category/world author: "Naomi Fields" published: 2026-06-29T11:48:00.000Z updated: 2026-06-29T11:48:00.000Z canonical: https://herald.la/article/can-france-s-national-rally-finally-win-the-elysee-with-or-without-le-pen tags: ["France", "National Rally", "Marine Le Pen", "Jordan Bardella", "2027 election", "Europe", "far right"] --- # Can France's National Rally Finally Win the Élysée, With or Without Le Pen? As France looks toward its April 2027 presidential election, the far-right National Rally leads every major poll. But its path to power turns on an unresolved legal question: whether Marine Le Pen will be allowed to run at all. For the first time in the history of France's Fifth Republic, the far right enters a presidential cycle as the frontrunner rather than the challenger. Whether it can convert that into the Élysée is another question entirely. ## A race like no other France votes for a president in April 2027, and the field is wide open: Emmanuel Macron, whose second term ends in May 2027, is barred from seeking a third consecutive mandate. Every major poll shows the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, or RN) leading the first round, [Connexion France reported](https://www.connexionfrance.com/news/french-far-right-well-ahead-in-new-poll-for-2027-presidential-election/781486). But the party's choice of standard-bearer is hostage to a court. ## Le Pen's legal shadow Marine Le Pen, the RN's longtime figurehead, was convicted in March 2025 of misappropriating European Parliament funds — a court found that EU money meant for parliamentary aides had been used to pay party staff — and sentenced to a prison term (partly suspended), a fine, and a five-year ban from public office applied with immediate effect, [France 24 reported](https://www.france24.com/en/france/20260113-france-le-pen-returns-to-court-with-2027-presidency-bid-on-the-line). If the ban stands, she cannot run in 2027. Le Pen appealed, and the Paris Court of Appeal heard the case early in 2026. A ruling is expected this summer, and several outcomes are possible: the court could overturn the conviction, uphold it while lifting the immediate ban, or sustain the sentence in full. Her eligibility for 2027 remains unresolved. She has kept her National Assembly seat throughout. ## Bardella steps forward In the meantime, party president Jordan Bardella, 29, has become the RN's primary electoral vehicle — and, in some surveys, its strongest. A poll taken after France's March 2026 municipal elections put Bardella around 35 percent of first-round voting intentions, well ahead of former prime minister Édouard Philippe, the only declared centrist contender, at roughly 20 percent, according to Connexion France. Telegenic and media-fluent, Bardella has courted business leaders and foreign right-wing figures to build credibility, though analysts at [UK in a Changing Europe](https://ukandeu.ac.uk/can-the-national-rallys-jordan-bardella-become-the-next-french-president/) note he has never held a ministerial post and that his authority inside the party is not unchallenged. ## The second-round problem First-round strength has never been the RN's obstacle. France's two-round system means whoever leads the first round then faces a consolidated opposition — the so-called republican front, under which rival parties urge supporters to back anyone but the RN. That mechanism blocked Le Pen in 2017 and 2022. But analysts say the front is weakening as trust in mainstream parties erodes and the RN cements itself as a permanent force; it grew from 8 to 89 National Assembly seats between 2017 and 2022. Second-round modeling still shows Philippe narrowly beating an RN candidate, Connexion France reported — but by tighter margins than before, and the result hinges on whether the fragmented center and left can unite behind a single name. ## What comes next France enters the second half of 2026 with its 2027 landscape unsettled. The appeal court's decision on Le Pen will shape not only who carries the RN banner but how the whole French right — split among nationalists, conservatives and centrists — aligns for the final stretch. What the polling and the analysts agree on is the headline fact: the far right has never started a French presidential race this far in front. ## Sources - [French 2027 presidential election: Can the RN win without Le Pen?](https://www.france24.com/en/france/20260629-french-2027-presidential-election-can-the-rn-win-without-le-pen-bardella) - [French far-right well ahead in new poll for 2027 presidential election](https://www.connexionfrance.com/news/french-far-right-well-ahead-in-new-poll-for-2027-presidential-election/781486) - [Le Pen returns to court with 2027 presidency bid on the line](https://www.france24.com/en/france/20260113-france-le-pen-returns-to-court-with-2027-presidency-bid-on-the-line) - [Can the National Rally's Jordan Bardella become the next French president?](https://ukandeu.ac.uk/can-the-national-rallys-jordan-bardella-become-the-next-french-president/)