A prominent voice from the pro-Israel center of the Democratic Party is preparing to deliver a pointed message to Israel's leadership, a sign of how the politics of the U.S.-Israel relationship are changing.

What Emanuel is expected to say

Rahm Emanuel, the former Chicago mayor, White House chief of staff and ambassador to Japan, is set to speak at Tel Aviv University on Wednesday and to accuse Mr. Netanyahu of steering the country toward a "dead end," according to remarks obtained by The Associated Press and reported by The Times of Israel. Israel, he is expected to warn, has come to be seen as a "regional pariah" and "cannot stand or survive as it has been," adding that "to maintain the strength of our ties, we need significant changes and a new direction."

Notably, Mr. Emanuel is expected to go beyond rhetoric. His prepared remarks call for sanctions on Israelis who attack Palestinian civilians and property, and on companies and banks that support settlements widely considered illegal under international law, as well as an end to U.S. subsidies for Israel's defense budget, the reporting indicated.

Why it matters

The significance lies partly in the messenger. Mr. Emanuel has been a stalwart supporter of Israel and sits in the party's centrist wing, not among its most left-leaning critics. That such a figure would deliver this message, in Israel itself, signals how mainstream skepticism of the current Israeli government has become within his party.

A shift in the polling

The speech lands amid measurable movement in public opinion. About 58 percent of Democrats now say the United States is "too supportive" of Israel, up from 45 percent in early 2024, according to a survey by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The trend has reshaped the debate inside the party, where support for Israel was long a point of broad consensus.

The other side

Mr. Netanyahu and his allies have rejected the premise of such criticism, arguing that Israel's actions are matters of national security and self-defense, and his government retains defenders in both American parties who caution against conditioning U.S. support. Mr. Emanuel's speech is one intervention in a larger, unresolved argument, but coming from where it does, it is a marker of how much the ground has moved.