Four months before Election Day, a set of new battleground polls suggests the fight for the Senate majority is genuinely unsettled — with neither party holding a commanding hand.

A six-state snapshot

The Times/Siena surveys, conducted June 15 to 29 among 3,659 likely voters across Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, found Democrats leading in two of the six seats, tied in one and trailing narrowly in the others, the Siena Research Institute reported. The margin of sampling error is roughly five percentage points in each state — meaning most of the races are, statistically, too close to call.

Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47. With the vice president able to break ties, Democrats would need to net four seats to take control.

The numbers, state by state

In North Carolina, where Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) leads Michael Whatley (R) 50 percent to 43 — the widest margin in the survey. In Maine, challenger Graham Platner (D) edges Sen. Susan Collins (R) 49 to 47. In Texas, state Rep. James Talarico (D) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) are tied at 47 apiece.

Republicans hold slim leads elsewhere: Sen. Jon Husted (R) over former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50-47 in Ohio; Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) over Josh Turek (D) 48-46 in Iowa; and Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) over former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) 47-45 in Alaska.

What the polls can and cannot say

These are surveys, not results. At roughly five points of error per state, the leads in Maine, Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska all fall within the range of statistical uncertainty, and much can change before November — fundraising, turnout operations and the economy among them. Polls can also diverge: a separate Fox News survey of Maine in late June showed Collins ahead by three, the opposite of the Times/Siena finding.

The broader environment

Independent measures point to a competitive map. President Trump's approval stood at 38 percent in a recent YouGov/Economist poll, with a majority disapproving, and Newsweek reported that analysts see a midterm climate that historically favors the party out of power. Republicans counter that they will draw sharp contrasts on fiscal and social policy and are defending incumbents in states Trump carried comfortably in 2024.

To reach a majority, Democrats would likely need to hold their leads in North Carolina and Maine and then win at least two of the four toss-ups, The Hill noted — a narrow but real path. "The fight for control of the U.S. Senate is on," said Siena Research Institute director Don Levy.