Wisconsin's bipartisan elections board has concluded there is probable cause that Elon Musk broke the state's election-bribery law during last year's high-stakes contest for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and it has handed the matter to a local prosecutor to decide whether to bring charges.

What the commission decided

The Wisconsin Elections Commission voted 5-1 in a closed session on July 9 to find probable cause that Musk violated state law by, in the commission's words, offering $1 million to people who voted in the 2025 election "in order to induce them to vote." The board referred two complaints, filed by a Milwaukee man and a Green Bay woman, to the Brown County district attorney, David Lasee. Prosecutors have 40 days to report back on whether they intend to pursue the case.

It is important to be precise about what this is and is not. A finding of probable cause means the commission believes there is enough evidence to warrant referral; it is not a criminal charge, and it is not a conviction. Whether any charge follows is now up to the district attorney.

The background

During the April 2025 race, Musk's political group, America PAC, handed out two $1 million checks to voters at a rally in Green Bay for Brad Schimel, the conservative candidate. The group had also offered $100 payments to people who signed a petition against "activist judges." Musk poured more than $20 million into the contest, which drew national attention as a test of his political spending. Schimel lost to the liberal-backed candidate, Susan Crawford, by about 10 percentage points.

The law at issue

Wisconsin statute bars offering anything of value to induce a person to vote or not vote. The commission's referral signals that a majority of its members concluded the $1 million offer could fall within that prohibition. Musk's legal team has previously argued that the payments were meant to build a grassroots movement against "activist judges" rather than to buy votes, and that restricting them would run afoul of free-speech protections.

What comes next

Musk had not publicly responded to the referral, and a spokesperson for America PAC did not immediately comment, according to news accounts of the decision. Separately, a state watchdog group, the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, has a pending lawsuit making related allegations. The Brown County prosecutor's decision, expected within weeks, will determine whether the elections commission's finding becomes an actual criminal case, or ends there.