Susan Collins has held her Senate seat since 1997, outlasting wave elections that swept away colleagues in both parties. The polling so far in 2026 suggests this campaign may be her hardest yet.
A race tightening against the incumbent
A New York Times/Siena College poll published Monday is the latest to show Democrat Graham Platner with a slight edge over Collins, within the survey's margin of error. It is consistent with a string of independent polls this spring and summer.
A University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov survey of 650 likely voters in mid-May put Platner ahead 48 percent to 43 percent, with a margin of error of about 4.9 points. A Public Policy Polling survey in early June had it 49 to 45, the Bangor Daily News reported, and a mid-June Wick/2WAY poll of more than 1,000 voters found the closest reading yet, roughly 48 to 45. Each margin is within the polls' stated error ranges, meaning the race is best described as a toss-up tilting slightly toward the challenger.
A caution: no single poll settles an election, and Collins has beaten her polling before. In 2020 she trailed Democrat Sara Gideon in nearly every major survey and then won by about nine points.
Who is Graham Platner?
Platner, 41, is an unconventional candidate. He grew up on the Maine coast, served eight years in the Marine Corps with multiple combat tours, later worked in private security, and now runs an oyster operation on Frenchman Bay. He entered the Democratic primary in 2025 on an explicitly progressive platform with backing from Sen. Bernie Sanders and organized labor, and won the June primary decisively after Gov. Janet Mills — initially seen as the front-runner — suspended her campaign. His biography has drawn scrutiny, including over resurfaced social-media posts, which his campaign has confronted rather than avoided.
A durable incumbent under unusual pressure
Collins remains one of Maine's best-known figures, with decades of constituent work and a reputation for independence — she was one of just two Republican senators to vote to convict President Trump at his second impeachment trial. But her standing has slipped: the UMass Lowell poll found only about 36 percent of likely voters viewed her favorably against 53 percent unfavorably, with women breaking sharply for Platner.
Why it matters beyond Maine
The race carries national weight. Collins is the only Republican senator representing a state that Trump did not carry in any of his three campaigns, and Democrats see Maine as one of their clearest opportunities to gain a seat as they try to retake the chamber. If Platner can hold his slim advantage into November, it would mark a significant shift in a state where Collins long enjoyed crossover goodwill.
For now, the numbers tell a consistent but unsettled story: a well-known incumbent trailing narrowly, a challenger still introducing himself to voters, and four months for either fact to change.
